I believe that stats like OPS+ and ERA+ are not used enough when talking about prospects. In order to properly look at a player’s stats you need to look at them within context of the league. For example, the average SLG in the International League (AAA) is .398 but in the Pacific Coast League the average SLG is .433 (both leagues are AAA). This is a prime example of why you have to look at a players stats relative to their league. All information is from this article by the Hardball Times.
The definition of a + stat by Hardball Times:
A stat measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors (I didn’t use park factors in my stats). A + stat over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average.
Here is a rundown on the leagues that the Orioles play in and a few players whose stats look good or bad by themselves, but much different when compared to the league. :
Norfolk Tides (International League, 3rd lowest run environment)
- Brandon Snyder .316 OBP – 97 OBP+
Bowie Baysox (Eastern League, 6th lowest run environment)
- Josh Bell .517 SLG – 144 SLG+ (impressive)
Frederick Keys (Carolina League, 9th lowest run environment)
- Matt Angle .370 OBP – 112 OBP+
- Caleb Joseph .450 SLG – 115 SLG+
- Brandon Waring .520 SLG – 133 SLG+
- Billy Rowell .284 OBP – 86 OBP+ (ouch)
Delmarva Shorebirds (Sally League, 10th lowest run environment) -
- Xavier Avery .262 AVG – 101 AVG+
- L.J. Hoes .260 AVG – 101 AVG+
- Ronnie Welty .373 OBP – 114 OBP+
Aberdeen IronBirds (New York Penn League, 4th lowest run environment) -
- Tyler Townsend .143 AVG – 57 AVG+ (had wrist injury)
- Garabez Rosa .391 SLG – 109 SLG+
As you can see, the Orioles’ 5 main farm teams are all in the bottom half of all leagues in runs per game. This is why it’s important to look at + stats, especially because the Orioles’ teams all play in pitchers leagues.
Note: I calculated all the stats myself and didn’t use park factors.
Very interesting. I see it happen all the time with the SF Giants. If you look at John Bowker, Kevin Frandsen, Todd Linden, etc. AAA – Fresno stats, they are so bloated because that has got to be one of the most hitter friendly yards in all of the minors.
Then they have a AA affiliate in Connecticut (eastern league?) and the beginning of the year it’s still cold, and the ball park is huge. If you hit .300 there with any kind of power numbers you’re legit (Pablo Sandoval is the last guy to rip it up there 2 years ago.)
It would be interesting to factor in weather as well. You hardly ever see a lot of runs scored in a game if it’s under say, 50 degrees or so. Would be interesting to dig up the data on that, and see how that factors in as well.
Yeah. The normal + stats use park factors so they are even more accurate.